This new year ushers in significant shifts in leadership, global relations, and geopolitical dynamics. At the same time, many key factors remain unchanged. For investors, the challenge lies in navigating how this blend of new developments and stagnancy will shape their portfolios.

In this week’s The Gold Spot, Scottsdale Bullion & Coin Founder Eric Sepanek and Precious Metals Advisor John Karow discuss gold price forecasts and predictions for 2025, the role central banks played in gold’s rally, and what buying opportunities are lurking around the corner.

Leadership Changes Across the Globe

The close of 2024 was a global referendum on incumbents, with the overwhelming outcome being their defeat. In 2025, the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom, Germany, and several other leading nations are experiencing significant leadership changes.

In today’s highly globalized and interconnected world, such political shifts have the potential to influence markets on a broad scale. Savvy investors are eager to stay abreast of these changes to keep their portfolios in the best position to thrive.

Bullish Outlook for Gold Prices in 2025

gold price predictions and forecasts 2025

Every turn of the calendar ushers in fresh predictions for the price of gold. At Scottsdale Bullion & Coin, we’ve made a tradition out of averaging those expert forecasts to give investors a rough idea of where the yellow metal might go.

In 2024, the aggregate of these predictions was around $2,500/oz. Gold’s unprecedented rally, which posted stellar gains, outperformed these expectations. However, our estimates have nearly always been in the ballpark or below where gold ends up.

Gold raged over 35% in 2024. It was one of the best years ever.
Scottsdale Bullion & Coin Founder Eric Sepanek

The gold price predictions for 2025 have gold clocking at an average of just over $3,000/oz, marking a ~14% jump from spot gold prices at the start of year. These bullish forecasts reflect the resilience of gold-positive economic and geopolitical conditions.

Central bank gold demand is the core catalyst for the yellow metal’s dramatic growth over the past few years, especially in 2024. Following a record setting first half and third quarter, governmental consumption stretched to 53 tons in November. Emerging markets led the buying frenzy with Poland, India, and China topping the pack.

US Policies Continue to Influence Central Bank Gold Buying

This modern-day gold rush isn’t happening randomly. Central banks are making a concerted effort to offload the dollar and onload gold bullion. Although this global de-dollarization trend has been decades in the making, the West’s weaponization of the dollar against Russia following its invasion of Ukraine fueled the movement to new heights.

You saw gold prices fly up so fast because the United States started using our dollar as a weapon.
Scottsdale Bullion & Coin Founder Eric Sepanek

This development marked a stark transition where foreign nations started viewing USD as a liability instead of an asset. The result had been a general shift away from the dollar in favor of physical gold—an asset that can’t be switched off, frozen, or otherwise controlled from an outsider. This uneasiness about the dollar is hitting foreign retail investors, too, with individual gold demand rising in conjunction with central bank purchases.

People are buying gold because, instinctively, they know that’s the place where you can put your money, and it’s not going to disappear. That’s its history.
Precious Metals Advisor John Karow

Unpacking Trump’s tariff policy reveals how the Presidency may continue leveraging the dollar to coerce foreign actors, further driving central banks toward gold bullion and harming the dollar’s demand.

China’s Gold Binge Reignited

Nowhere has this switch up from dollar reserves to physical gold been more apparent than in China. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) accumulated record amounts of gold throughout 2022, 2023, and most of 2024 before taking a months-long hiatus. Recently, China snapped that dry spell with a 5-ton purchase in November and continued buying in December 2024. Deteriorating US-China relations and already established gold-buying quotas suggest the PBOC will continue topping up its reserves far into the future.

The dollar’s antagonistic posture isn’t only making the Chinese central bank nervous. The country’s public is also growing increasingly wary of the dollar’s threat, leading to heightened retail demand. As the world’s second-largest population, Chinese investors can significantly sway gold prices. This retail demand is largely concentrated in the jewelry market, similar to India. For perspective, Chinese jewelry consumption reached 373 tons in the first three quarters of 2024, far outpacing PBOC demand.

Suggested Video: Who’s Driving Gold’s Remarkable Growth?

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Inauguration Week: A Big Week for BIG DEALS!

Every election cycle brings a unique opportunity for savvy investors. Around Inauguration Day (Monday, January 20th), the precious metals market often quiets down, creating the perfect storm for smart buying:

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  2. Stalled spot prices ripe for action.

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