Steve Rand
General Manager / Sr. Precious Metals Advisor
Steve Rand is the General Manager and a Sr. Precious Metals Advisor at Scottsdale Bullion & Coin. He brings over 20 years of experience in the physical precious metals markets.
It only took a few days after gold crossed the $3,000 an ounce mark for analysts to raise their price targets. Now, a growing number of experts say $4,000 an ounce could be closer than many investors think. This is a reflection not only of gold’s unstoppable momentum but of the powerful forces still driving it higher.
The Impact of $3,000+ Gold
Gold has been in a rally for several years, but the pace has accelerated sharply over the past year. From July 2020 to October 2023, it traded in a relatively tight range between $1,600 an ounce and just over $2,000 an ounce. In 2024, the yellow metal broke out of the holding pattern decisively, hitting a series of new highs that have continued into 2025.
Many experts see the recent crossing of the $3,000 mark as more of a psychological milestone than a true ceiling. That view is supported by gold’s strong price action, which has held firm above $3,000 instead of pulling back, signaling strength and potential stability at this level. Gold is up around 16% year-to-date and 40% year-on-year, underscoring its power.
A study by the World Gold Council (WGC) found that gold’s most recent $500 jump—from $2,500 to $3,000 an ounce—was the fastest on record, reinforcing the idea that gold’s momentum is accelerating. Historically, it has taken gold about 1,700 days to rise by $500. This time, it took just 200 days, a pace 8.5 times faster than usual.
“Gold crossing $3,000 is a headline-worthy event, but the true significance for gold lies in the broader economic trends driving its rise.”–
The Experts Calling for $4,000/oz Gold Price
Several analysts and institutions are now revising their targets upward, with $4,000 an ounce no longer seen as a fringe prediction:
- Jeffrey Gundlach, CEO of DoubleLine Capital
“I think gold will make it to $4,000. I’m not sure that’ll happen this year, but I feel like that’s the measured move.”
- Mike McGlone, Bloomberg’s Senior Commodity Strategist
“What Gets Gold to $4,000? 2% T-Bonds? Melting Cryptos May Guide – A path toward $4,000 an ounce for #gold could require something that’s typically a matter of time: reversion in silly-expensive risk assets, notably cryptocurrencies. If the US stockmarket continues falling, Treasuries at about 4% will face gravity pull from government bonds in China and Japan yielding less than 2%, adding tailwinds to gold.”
- Ed Yardeni, President of Yardeni Research, Inc.
“We are targeting (not promising) a gold price of $4,000 per ounce by the end of this year and $5,000 by the end of 2026. Those projections are based mostly on our expectation that central banks will continue to accumulate gold reserve assets.”
- Peter Schiff, Financial commentator and radio personality
“Today marks a monumental moment in gold history as the spot price closes above $3,000 an ounce. Despite the media’s silence, this development is significant. While central banks stockpile gold, retail investors have a unique opportunity to capitalize. With gold expected to rise to $4,000 and beyond, now is the perfect time to invest.”
- Société Générale (SocGen)
“With the risks skewed toward a weaker dollar and central banks likely to accelerate de-dollarization due to heightened geopolitical uncertainty, we remain very positive on gold. The gold price could get a further significant boost, probably toward $4,000/oz.”
Why $4,000 Isn’t That Unbelievable
At first glance, $4,000 an ounce gold might sound like a distant, long-term goal, but history tells a different story. While the number feels largely out of context, it’s only about a 33% increase from current levels. Gold has posted similar and even more impressive gains in short timeframes before.
Here are some examples:
1971–1980: Post–Gold Standard Boom
- Start Price: ~$35/oz
- End Price: ~$850/oz
- Gain: ~2,330%
- Time Frame: ~9 years
2001–2011: Commodities Supercycle
- Start Price: ~$270/oz
- End Price: ~$1,900/oz
- Gain: ~600%
- Time Frame: 10 years
2008–2011: Financial Crisis Rebound
- Start Price: ~$720/oz
- End Price: ~$1,900/oz
- Gain: ~164%
- Time Frame: ~3 years
2018–2020: Pre- and Early Pandemic Rally
- Start Price: ~$1,175/oz
- End Price: ~$2,050/oz
- Gain: ~75%
- Time Frame: 2 years
2024–Present: Current Rally
- Start Price: ~$2,000/oz
- End Price: TBD
- Gain: TBD
- Time Frame: TBD
With gold continuing to show resilience above $3,000 and experts aligning behind the possibility of $4,000, this rally doesn’t appear to be slowing down anytime soon. If anything, the momentum is building. For investors seeking to diversify their portfolios with a time-tested asset, now may be one of the most strategic windows in recent history. Locking in current prices could position you for meaningful long-term gains, especially if gold’s next leg higher unfolds as many predict.
