Eric Sepanek
SBC Founder
Eric Sepanek is the founder of Scottsdale Bullion & Coin, established in 2011. With extensive experience in the precious metals industry, he is dedicated to educating Americans on the wealth preservation power of gold and silver.
Macquarie Group raised its gold price forecast to $3,500 for 2025. The revision comes as the yellow metal pierces the $3,000 psychological barrier and notches a 14% gain on the year. The Australian multinational investment bank cites robust demand despite elevated prices as the main driver behind gold’s continued rally. With plenty of room for more retail investments and central bank appetite rumbling, analysts expect gold to rise steadily over the next six months.
A Higher Benchmark
In mid-March, Macquarie released a note to investors with a bold, near-term prediction of gold stretching to $3,500 by Q3 2025. This optimistic outlook represents a nearly 17% surge in only six months as the increased forecast lands on the tail end of Q1. Furthermore, analysts expect the yellow metal to average $3,150 throughout Q2 and Q3, pinpointing $3,500 as the ultimate target. This anticipated average is still a 5% increase from current prices, suggesting strong momentum.
As Macquarie’s head of commodities strategy, Marcus Garvey explains, “Year-to-date, gold has been running ahead of our expectations.”
Gold’s Nominal vs Real Value
The Aussie bank’s raised benchmark would put gold near its inflation-adjusted high, last reached in January 1980 during the stagflation boom. Gold’s recent crossing of the $3,000 hurdle, which refers to its raw value, is a record in nominal terms. However, when adjusted for inflation, prices are still shy of historic peaks. Macquarie’s bullish outlook indicates that the yellow metal could reclaim these real highs very soon.
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Investors Pay Premium for Protection
According to the bank’s note, the main driver of gold’s upward trajectory is “investors’ and official institutions’ greater willingness to pay for its lack of credit or counterparty risk.” Analysts explain how gold, as a non-yielding asset, still has opportunity costs as interest rates remain elevated. Stubborn inflation has delayed the Federal Reserve’s rate cuts, and extending the timeline for yielding assets could dampen gold’s appeal.
As Macquarie highlights, safe-haven demand remains robust among retail, institutional, and national investors despite this potential headwind. Last year, gold investment demand, excluding government buyers, rose by 25%. Similarly, central banks gobbled up more than 1,000 tons, marking the third year in a row that consumption reached this monumental level.
National Debt to Lift Gold
Gold’s potential to keep pace with inflation isn’t the only factor pushing investors toward gold. The US national debt, currently towering at $36 trillion, weighs heavily on investor confidence in the US dollar. Last year, the federal deficit topped $1.8 trillion, and experts expect a similar figure in 2025.
Analysts at Macquarie say “the budget deficit will deteriorate” despite tariff revenue, DOGE efforts, and potential Medicaid cuts.
In summary, the bank explains, “Against this challenging fiscal backdrop, and that of many advanced economies, gold prices are likely to remain historically elevated.”
Short-Term Tailwinds
Robust central bank buying and overwhelming economic uncertainty remain the primary supports of elevated gold prices, but Macquarie also underscores some potential tailwinds in the short-run. The Trump administration’s push to pressure the Fed into cutting rates earlier than central bank leaders prefer could turbocharge gold’s ascent. Furthermore, the bank highlights how demand for gold exchange-traded funds (ETFs) sits 20% below recent highs in 2020. If retail and institutional investors return to the market, the influx could further fuel gold’s rise.
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